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A Deliberate Government Policy

The day after I published my blog on the oil crisis out comes some general agreement and support to what I have said.  And the big point no one should miss is that the high price of oil and gas at the pump is deliberate, deliberate government policy to make us give up fossil fuels COLD TURKEY, with devastating effects to the economy which is already in a banking/mortgage crisis and absolutely horrendous effects on the average American worker many of whom are now putting gas purchases on credit cards they never will repay.
 
QUOTE #1
 
"I have got to admit: As each day goes by, I am growing angrier over the debate about oil prices. Elites pontificate that if we simply let the prices rise, the country will be forced to develop alternate energy sources. People will drive less and use less fuel, and that would benefit the environment."

"I use the word pontificate deliberately, because the tone is often condescending—as if they were telling a young child to “eat your vegetables.” Hand-in-hand with the pontification is a stubborn resistance to looking for new sources of domestic oil production, either onshore or offshore, or in Alaska."

"The implicit message is that allowing such drilling would interfere with the lesson that the American people need to learn."

"Ok, we have got to conserve more; I agree. And we have got to find alternatives to foreign oil. But, in the meantime, the “lessons” the elites are seeking to teach us are killing the world’s economy. And nobody feels the pain more than working-class Americans and the poor."

"Historian Victor Davis Hanson recently wrote about talking with some people at a rural gas station in central California. These people could not afford a “new fuel-efficient” car, and “they were now spending a day or two of their wages just to fuel their cars for their long rural commutes.”

"As Hanson put it, the “truly ethical and environmental solution would require embracing positions long considered anathema” to our elites. “Fairness to the poor and middle class” means lowering oil prices, not raising them as part of some social engineering scheme"

"At this point, people object that increased drilling will do nothing to lower gas prices. They insist it will be decades, if not longer, before the increased exploration pays off in new supplies."

"l, they are wrong: Before the moratorium on offshore drilling, oil companies had already discovered billions of barrels of reserves on the California coast. A friend of mine in the industry says they could be online and pumping within two years."production would quickly lower prices at the pump—because traders would be convinced that the supply is going up, not down."

"Nobody would benefit more from offshore drilling than working Americans—those being hurt the most by the status quo. "

"It is galling to me to watch people who, doubtless, live in large homes, fly in private planes, and are not affected by the price of gas, build their idea of utopia on the backs of the poor."
 
                                                                                                                                Chuck Colson
QUOTE #2
 
 

"This immediate danger is eclipsed only by the long-term threat from climate change, which will lead to devastating weather patterns, terrible storms, drought, and famine. That means people competing for food and water in the next fifty years in the very places that have known horrific violence in the last fifty: Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Most disastrously, that could mean destructive storms on our shores, and the disappearance of our coastline. "

"This is not just an economic issue or an environmental concern – this is a national security crisis. For the sake of our security – and for every American family that is paying the price at the pump – we must end this dependence on foreign oil. And as President, that’s exactly what I’ll do. Small steps and political gimmickry just won’t do. I’ll invest $150 billion over the next ten years to put America on the path to true energy security. This fund will fast track investments in a new green energy business sector that will end our addiction to oil and create up to 5 million jobs over the next two decades, and help secure the future of our country and our planet. We’ll invest in research and development of every form of alternative energy – solar, wind, and biofuels, as well as technologies that can make coal clean and nuclear power safe. And from the moment I take office, I will let it be known that the United States of America is ready to lead again."
 
                                                                                                                Barack Obama 7/15/08
 
QUOTE #3 - A SPOOF
 
 

Subject: Oback Arama and Drilling


"Frankly, I am disappointed that the price of gasoline has risen as rapidly as it has. I would have preferred a more gradual increase to current levels. I support a gradual increase in price to the price paid in European countries in the range of $9 to $10 per gallon. That will constrict demand so that people will switch to driving golf carts to work and to grandma's house."

"Yes, it's true that high gas prices will hurt the middle class the most but it's time they learned that the world is sick and tired of our using so much energy and the middle class just needs to get over it. Yes, yes, I know that Democrat policies have caused the high prices that are destroying the auto industry and the trucking industry and the US economy in general but our standing in the eyes of the world will increase dramatically if we reduce our use of energy. I am counting on the fact that the unions will still support me and those boz.. irr... aaah workers will still vote for me and when they do, I will get new and better and more ethical jobs for them in green industries that the auto workers and teamsters will love."

"The right is so ignorant about the laws of supply and demand. Just because you increase supply by drilling doesn't mean that prices will come down, at least that's what my advisors keep telling me, not to mention the Democrat brain trust in Congress and the Senate. When As president, I promise to use sound Democrat laws of supply and demand such as: confiscating obscene profits from oil companies, continued prohibition of drilling in sensitive areas, and Department of Justice investigations of oil company price gouging."

"You can have hope that I will change these things and others to bring us to policies that will make us feel good about ourselves. Riding in golf carts is change that works for me and change that I can use. Can you use that kind of hope and change?"

"Yes we can! Yes we can! Yes we can!"

I"'m Oback Arama and I approved this message".
                                                                                                  by Stefano
 
People have written in and asked me why I did not mention that Speculators were driving up the price of oil and why did I not come out in favor of regulating them so that they cannot do that.
 
And the answer is that they would take the whole Speculation Stock Market and move it overseas.  Prohibition doesn't work on any of the vices.  But the way to break the back of the specualtors would be:
 
#1 - Dump all the national oil reserve on the market at one time (of course you would have to admit that casual effect of supply and demand). That would bring about an immediate short term price fall which would bankrupt the Speculators.
#2 - Aggresively pursue a policy of drilling for oil and mean it.  Speculators would then be putting their money on the price of oil going down and that would remove all that part of the high price of oil which is due to speculation ( Speculators believe in the law of supply and demand also).
 
Lastly let me say that man made Global Warming is a religion with its proponents.  However, since there is no 100% agreement on tthe authenticity of this belief (contrary to what Global Warmists will tell you), then it is really poor government policy to be implementing programs on the basis of faith.   It's a hoax and junk science which cannot be proved so it is being accepted on faith and preached as the new religion of the left.  It has a close analogy to The Apocalypse, Second Coming, And the End of Times.  It's message parallels the preacher's hell and damnation oratory in instilling fear in the populace.
 
As a religion its dogma takes precedence over any human suffering.  And so we have government induced high oil prices, government induced collapsing economy, government induced financial distress.  The evil American high energy consumer must suffer to cleanse his soul through the new religion of Global Warming thereby reconciling himself with all of humanity. God save us from such tripe.!!
 
 
 
 
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For The Sake Of An Ideology

 

The Democrats do not care if American citizens lose their job, freeze to death or go bankrupt. The Democratic Party has been captured by the Environmental whackos. No matter what the consequences Democrats are going to block any drilling for oil anywhere in the USA. They are going to prohibit the use of coal our most plentiful supply of energy and they also will bloc natural gas use. In addition they absolutely will not allow another Nuclear Power Plant to be built in the USA and on that score they have been successful as the last one was built in the 70s. And they have also made it so difficult to build a refinery that none has been constructed in 35 years even though our population has increased by over 50 million people.

And the blame here belongs to THE GLOBAL WARMISTS. Junk science is going to put us in a position of extreme hardship. Cap & trade policies will increase prices tremendously. On gas at the pump it will mean a 53 cent increase per gallon. And this policy will send jobs overseas.

Militarily we are also at risk as 70% of our oil is now imported from foreign countries versus 30% in the 70s. And many of those who would sell us their oil are anti US rogue nations. We open ourselves to international blackmail by not becoming energy independent. There is no plan to put into practice should anti US oil producers just refuse to sell America oil on ideological grounds.

Nick Nichols lists some oil facts. Let’s take a look at some of them.

§ Fact:  “Big oil” doesn’t exist in the U. S.—investor-owned companies like Exxon-Mobil, Conoco-Phillips and Chevron control 6% of the world’s oil reserves—how could they possibly fix the price of crude oil?

§ Fact:  International oil companies—owned by foreign governments like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela—control 78% of oil reserves, with another 10% under their negotiating authority; 6% of crude oil reserves are controlled by Russian companies.

§ Fact:  The price of crude oil represents 70% of the price of gasoline at the pump, that’s $2.80 out of a $4 gallon just for raw material; refining and retailing account for 17% of the price.

§ Fact:  Oil and natural gas industry earnings are 7.4% compared to 7.6% for all U.S. manufacturing—so where are these huge windfall profits?

§ Fact:  Taxes account for 13% of the price we pay at the pump for gasoline—that’s about 52-cents a gallon at today’s prices—compare that to oil industry earnings— talk about a windfall!

§ Fact:  Oil, coal and natural gas represent about 84% of our energy mix—do you still buy the clap-trap that wind and solar will come to the rescue during our lifetime?

§ Fact:  The prices Americans pay for gas are the result of increased demand for oil, a decline in the value of the dollar, political instability in the Middle East, and government regulations that prevent exploration, disrupt markets and raise prices at the pump. 

A windfall profits tax will only worsen the situation. First of all Corporations do not pay taxes. They pass taxes on in the price they charge for the product. Secondly Big Oil are multinational corporations. They do business all over the world in various side ventures also. If you tack a windfalls profits tax on them they will stop producing here in the USA and run their business from elsewhere in the world in ventures that are not sold in the USA. Jimmy Carter tried it and it was a miserable failure. Are you too young to have known the long gas lines and the stations out of gas during the Carter Administration?

But the worst thing about this crisis is that it is deliberate and a calculated agenda to deindustrialize America and return it to some pre fossil fuel utopia envisioned by the enlightened, also known as environmental whackos or to be nicer the Greens. These people, all from the hard left, have been for decades now telling us that we have to give up fossil fuel, never use coal and be shot at dawn for even considering nuclear power. They have constantly advocated super high taxes on oil and gasoline to make people use something else. Al Gore and others have touted $5.00 to $10.00 per gallon federal taxes on gasoline and diesel for years now. This current spike in oil prices delights them. Notice how Obama’s  reaction was, - I am just sorry it has come all at once. What is happening is exactly what they want. They are all smiles.

But what about Joe six pack. What does he do to pay the bills and feed his family? Who cares? The far left Greens have no compassion for the common man (and woman). They are so agenda driven, so enamored of their cause that anything else takes a back seat. We must rid the nation of fossil fuel usage right away, they say. This is the only thing on their mind. They are zealots, fanatics and so in love with their cause that they don’t care if the average American has no readily available alternative. Let them starve, lose their jobs, go bankrupt. That will show them we mean business and how important this issue is, they chortle.

Now I have always been and continue to be a big believer in being a good steward to mother Earth. Clean air, clean water, clean environment, and heavy fines and jail sentences for those who dump toxic waste are basic core beliefs of mine.  But this man made Global Warming is a hoax and the utopian agenda that accompanies it seeks to put us into the lifestyle of the Amish. And if the whole United States economy has to crash, well so be it say the Greens.

Kim Strassel in The Wall Street Journal makes these observations about Harry Reid:

“In a recent interview with Fox News Business Channel, Mr. Reid, who was evidently fed up with questions about drilling, suddenly exclaimed: "Coal makes us sick, oil makes us sick; it's global warming. It's ruining our country, it's ruining the world. We've got to stop using fossil fuel."

“Mr. Reid's rant quickly became the No. 1 video on the Internet, approaching a half-million views. The pollster Rasmussen even took the unusual step of conducting a survey to see how many Americans agreed with the Nevadan's view. Let's just say he didn't win a majority.”

“But give Mr. Reid marks for honesty. To many liberal Democrats, cheap fossil fuels are the root cause of excessive materialism, suburban sprawl, a despoiled environment – and they've been demanding for decades that government raise the price of energy to discourage Americans from driving big cars and living in large, well-heated homes. Democrats may never have had the political courage to impose such towering European-style gasoline taxes directly, but Mr. Reid's policy diatribe at least explains why Democrats have found it so easy to sit on their hands rather than take steps to increase domestic supply and bring down $4 gasoline.”

And J. R. Dunn on The American Thinker had this to say:

“Current energy policy -- or non-policy, however you wish -- lies at the very center of the Green agenda. It is the only element in which any progress has been achieved. First, we need to rid ourselves of our "addiction" to nukes and oil. Then we adapt to solar and wind, and.... Here it peters off into silence. Because no such second step has ever, or will ever be made. Solar, wind, alcohol, ethanol... all these are single-digit energy sources. (And the low single digits as well, able to replace perhaps two or three percent of power generation at best.) Replacement of oil and nuclear power is a fantasy. Therefore, the rest of the Green dream is as well.”

 

“But the gutting of the American energy sector remains the Green's chief accomplishment, their single achieved step toward paradise. They will defend it tooth and nail. The Green lobby, comprised of organizations such as the Sierra Club and the World Wildlife Federation, is immensely powerful and has deep pockets -- not to overlook the many politicians who are avid converts (e.g., Hudson Valley congressman John Hall, who as leader of the execrable 70s soft-rock band Orleans wrote an anti-nuke anthem, "Plutonium is Forever"). “

 

The Green crisis ahead

 

“They'll still lose. Americans are not going to freeze in the dark. Nuclear technology has gone through several revolutions in the past decades. Entire families of reactors exist --  including the CANDU and pebble-bed  designs -- that are far safer from kind of catastrophic failure. Evolution in oil drilling and exploitation has followed similar paths. We need to catch up on these technical advances. There are already 30 new nuclear plants proposed in the US and some are even in early stages of licensing. The plants use new designs which make use of  passive safety systems that substantially reduce the chance of a major accident.”

 

“Other aspects of the Green argument have also collapsed. New discoveries off Brazil and in the Gulf of Mexico have nearly doubled international oil reserves, pushing backwards from the "peak oil" date. And global warming, that notorious by-product of "oil addiction," has faded to the point that its advocates are now reduced to threatening dissenters with prison.”  

We have plenty of oil on US soil & sea; over 300 trillion barrels are there for the taking. More oil than all of the Mideast countries combined. But we are prohibited from drilling for it. The alternatives of coal and nuclear are also forbidden. And anywhere there is any energy construction or exploration there are the Green groups who bring out their lawyers and sue to halt the activity. If they lose they appeal to the next level. The latest addition of the Polar Bear to a threatened species status will allow environmental lawyers to block or tie up in courts energy activity of any kind for decades.

The Democrats say that oil is finite and that we need to get off our fossil fuel addiction. They have chosen this time in history to force us off this “addiction”. But what they are doing is making us all go COLD TURKEY. And they have not provided for any substitution to take the place of oil usage. Can you believe it? $10.00/Gal gas prices and they have nothing in its place to offer, not even remorse. They don’t care. Obama spoke out on energy a few days ago and told his audience that we had better all prepare for $12.00/Gal gas prices. Did he recommend any action to solve this problem? Not on your life. Like most good Marxists he is married to the ideology regardless of the consequences. This is the Democratic Party which is supposedly for the little people?

The Democrats say that drilling will not solve the problem. Don’t tell Castro that who has enlisted the Chinese to drill for oil  for him 60 miles off the coast of Florida.  They neglected to take Economics 101 and study the effects of supply and demand. I don’t think that there are many people out there who cannot see what the effect of doubling the supply of oil and gas available for sale would do to the price. Alternative energy is being feverously worked on. But technology break throughs do not open up just because you want them to. And mass marketing and mass superstructure of anything new takes time. We need a bridge that will allow us the time to develop alternative fuels without putting undue hardships on the American people. That bridge is the vast deposits of oil we have right here in the United States. And those deposits can be tapped without harm to the environment in the process of extraction.

Decisions have consequences and the Democratic, Liberal, Green, Environmental whacko- Global Warmists deliberate policy to allow the price of oil to exceed $140 per barrel and gas at the pumps up to $4.50/Gal and rising has dire consequences for the US economy. We are skating on very thin ice here. If we have serious hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico and oil rigs have to shut down the price will skyrocket. Israel is getting ready to take out Iran who is about ready to combine its nuclear bomb with newly developed missiles If the missiles start flying the oil wells will be closed or destroyed and the world supply of oil will drop. Once again the price will go up.

US airlines have already put us on notice that they cannot continue to operate under these conditions and they cannot pass on their increased costs to the consumer. Eight airlines have gone belly-up already. Look for the auto manufacturers to soon stop production of any new vehicles and lay off all their workers. The tire manufactures will follow suit. When we hit $8.00/Gal at the pumps look for the National Guard to be called out to stop looting and stealing. When it hits $10.00/Gal look for all the airlines to shut down, commuters unable to pay the cost of getting to work, jobs to dry up, companies to go out of business and the army marching in our streets to keep order. All for an ideology that puts people last.

For the first time in my life I may purchase a gun to protect myself and my property. I also may stash some hard cash aside and maybe put up a bunker in the back yard completely stocked with food and water. For the first time in my life I am really frightened.

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Why Obama Will Not Be Elected President This Time Around

 

We can learn much from history for history repeats itself. If only Hitler had learned from Napoleon’s invasion of Russia, he would have kept his pact with Stalin, divided up Eastern Europe with him and concentrated on the West, invading Britain instead.  Who knows what would have happened then.

We can also learn from history about American Presidential elections. History will show us Presidential voting patterns of the nation as a whole, generalizations for sure, but useful guidelines just the same. But before that we need to know how the party machinery works. Like many other organizations, the most committed, the most zealous and the most ideological work and volunteer for a political party. Those who have a passion for the dogma of a party are the ones who staff it both with paid and volunteers. For these people the “Cause” is everything and they are devoted to the most radical interpretation of the ideology of their party. Looking at an American political party spectrum looks something like this:

1__________2__________3__________4__________5__________6__________7

1= Hard Left

2= Regular Liberal

3= Soft left

4= Centrist

5= Soft Right

6= Regular Conservative

7= Hard Right

The party workers and the party apparatus then is staffed by 1s and 2s for the Democrats and 6’s and 7’s for the Republicans. These would include local workers in the field such as precinct captains as well as a majority of primary voters. Only about 50-60 % of the general populace vote in Presidential elections. In the primaries the number drops to about 20%. The primaries then sees a majority of 1s and 2s and 6s and 7s. The party nominee has a tendency to be closer to the extreme end of the political spectrum than to the Centrist middle. But in the general election most voters are 3s, 4s and 5s. In fact the voting population as a whole shows it to be about a 4.5. These general election voters do not like hardcore more extreme nominees and they vastly out number party ideologues. Thus a candidate running for President will go through the primaries catering to the political base but in the general election will move the rhetoric closer to the center. Furthermore, we are truly a nation divided right down the middle in party affiliation and/or sympathy. The nation is 45% Democrat and 45% Republican and the 10% left are uncommitted, undecided middle of the roaders. These 10%, however, play a crucial part in the election of a President. They will mostly stay away from the extremes of either party, voting for the candidate who is closest to the middle. So if you have a 1 running versus a 5, the 5 will always win. Conversely a 7 running against a 3 will most often be a loser. Let’s take a look at post WWII Presidential elections.

1952 Dwight Eisenhower a 5 defeated Adlai Stevenson a 1- 55.2 % to 44.3% (popular vote only, as will be the rest of the comparisons). 1956 saw a repeat of the same two work out to be, Eisenhower 57.4 %, Stevenson 42%. The extreme candidate got soundly trounced. In 1960 John Kennedy a 2 barely defeated Richard Nixon a 6, 49.7% to 49.6%. 1964 saw Lyndon Johnson a 3 defeat Barry Goldwater a 1, 61.1% to 38.5%. Here again the radical got the stuffing beat out of him. In 1968 the resurrected Richard Nixona6 got 43.4 % of the vote and Hubert Humphrey a 2 – 42.8%. Notice like in 1960 when both candidates are Regular liberal/conservative nominees how close the vote is. The country is evenly divided and in both instances the centrist 10% split about evenly between the two nominees as neither was on the extreme end of their party. Notice what happens in the next election when one of the nominees is selected from the extreme end of his party. In 1972 Nixon a 6 beat George McGovern a 1 60.7% to 37.5%. It is after this election that the Democrat party changes its nomination process to include Super Delegates who are supposed to never let a McGovern happen again to embarrass the party so much. Consequently the Democrats nominated a far more moderate Presidential candidate in 1976. The Republicans also had a very centrist leaning candidate. Jimmy Carter a 3 beat Gerald Ford a 5 - 50.1% to 48.0 % , the Republicans feeling the identification with Watergate. In 1980 Ronald Reagan a 6 beat Jimmy Carter a 3 – 50.8% to 41.0%. But in this year most of the centrist voters went for a third party candidate John Anderson 6.6%. That took votes away from Carter not Reagan. 1984 saw Ronald Reagan a 6 trounce Walter Mondale a 2 - 58.8% to 40.6%. The Democrats went back to a northern liberal and a highly popular president had an easier time with him then a more centrist candidate. Some would make the case that Mondale was really a 1.5 but we refuse to split hairs here. In 1988 George Bush Sr. a 5 beat Michael Dukakis a 2 – 53.4% to 45.7%. Here the centrist candidate was Bush who was riding the coat tails of his highly successful predecessor. But notice that those coat tails did not last long. The Democrats got smart the next time and went back to a Southern more centrist Democrat rather than a committed liberal from the North. So 1992 saw William Clinton a 3 defeat incumbent Bush a 5 - 43.0% to 37.5%. Here again a third party candidate eschewed the results. Ross Perot got 18.9% of the vote taking three votes from Bush for every one for Clinton. 1996 showed the same problem, Ross Perot ran again but this time he only got 8.4 % of the vote which if they all went to the Republican would have resulted in a dead heat. But it was Clinton a 3 defeated Robert Dole a 6 - 49.2% to 40.7 %. In 2000 George Bush Jr a 6 - got 47.9% to Albert Gore’s leading 48.4 % as a 2. But here again a third party candidate Ralph Nader got 2.7% of the vote. Nader took the hard core left and cost Gore the election. In 2004 Bush running again as a 6 beat John Kerry a 1.5 50.7% to 48.3%.

There are other factors than ideology that determine a winner. Charisma, eloquence and compassion all count as characteristics that the American people look for in their Presidents. Incumbents have a distinct advantage for a second Presidential term unless they have screwed up badly. And let me make the point that the ratings you see here are subjective, they are my opinion. Your opinion may be different. But I rated them as they were perceived at the time of election not as they really were after years as President. Goldwater was perceived, whether rightly or wrongly, as a far right radical. Bill Clinton was perceived as soft left when he ran.

The point to once again make very plain is that  the majority of the party faithful, the workers and those into politics as a vocation and the way they earn a living are 1s & 2s on one side and 6s and 7s on the other. These people determine the nominees for President and supply the campaigns with money and manpower. They therefore will always try to nominate a hard core liberal on the Democrat side and a hard core conservative on the Republican side. But when it comes to the general election the 3s, 4s and 5s come out in large numbers. In fact they are more in number than the 1s, 2s, 6s &7s. The majority of the everyday American workers are “middle of the roaders”. They will vote for a slightly liberal or a slightly conservative candidate. If they were to ever get a nominee right smack in the center they would overwhelmingly vote for that person. But they won’t vote for radical, hard core ideologues and they comprise the largest segment of the electorate. So a Democrat who is a 3 is not going to vote for a Democrat who is a 1 unless the Republican choice is a 7. However if the Republican choice is a 5 he (she) will desert the Democrat Party and vote for a Republican for President while at the same time voting for all Democrats for Congress. Similarly a Republican who is a 5 is not going to vote for a Republican who is a 7 unless the Democrat choice is a 1. However, if the Democrat choice is a 3 he (she) will desert the Republican Party and vote for a Democrat for President while at the same time voting for all Republicans for Congress.

This is one of the main reasons for the success of third party candidates for President. Many Americans feel that the Presidential nomination process is flawed. They end up either not liking either candidate or voting for the lesser of two evils. Thus Anderson, Perot and to a lesser extent Nader in recent years have spoken to those centrist majority voters searching for that practical rather than doctrinaire politician. Hard core radicals do not win Presidential elections but both parties have this death wish to nominate them, especially the Democrat Party. Democrats just can’t seem to let go of their ideology long enough to nominate someone acceptable to the middle. Hubert Humphrey came within a whisker of defeating Richard Nixon in 1968. The next year the Democrats ran a far left radical against him, George McGovern, and they were swamped. Nixon to his own discredit got involved with Watergate and paid the price but many Democrats at the time said that it was foolish to nominate such a hard liner to oppose Nixon. And thus was born the rise of the Super Delegates as part of the Democrat nominating process, so that never again would the ideologues in the party make it look so foolish and inept again. So the next Democrat nominee was Jimmy Carter, a southern more centrist Democrat, at least that was how he was perceived. Then after two defeats with Northern committed Liberals Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis the Democrats once again nominated a Southern more centrist Democrat in William Clinton and hit pay dirt.

Now we come to the 2008 Presidential election. The Republicans with a lot of help from Democrat voters have nominated John McCain a 5. The Democrats are running two 1s. They haven’t learned. But here is what’s been going down. Both Democrat nominees know that their radicalism will not fly. Hilary expected little serious opposition to her candidacy. She expected a coronation. So some two years ago, since she thought for sure that she was the nominee, she started to move to the center.  This was the remake of Clinton. Her radicalism was tempered by many speeches and position papers that moved right. This angered a lot of the party faithful who as always want that hardcore liberal radical. Many Democrats thought that Hilary was deserting her Liberalism. Along comes Obama to fill the void. But he too knows his radicalism won’t fly. So while clueing in party regulars as to his real feelings, he campaigned on a platform of Unity, Hope & Change. He said he was a liberal, a moderate and a conservative all rolled into one. He pledged to change things while being a uniter.

Much of America would like to put the history of our treatment of African American blacks behind us. We long for the day when race does not matter. And when along comes a black man running for the highest office who isn’t talking about race but about uniting all people, we release a sigh of relief and say to ourselves –“at last.” We can put an African American into the white House and have this sad chapter in our history behind us. Today starts a new day with closure and we have no trouble promoting this little known man because he is preaching centrist views with great eloquence.

But what change is he advocating? Who cares he is a good man. What will be his specific policy decisions? Well based on what he is saying how could they be so bad? What do we know about this man’s real feelings on the issues? Who cares, he’s a fresh face offering hope and change and everybody pulling together.

But then the real truth came out. Obama was really a hardcore radical, some even said a Marxist. Last time I wrote about Obama he was generally considered the third most liberal Senator. Today he is number one, the most far left Senator of them all. And much has been revealed about his associations and his views.

How liberal is he stacked against other liberals? Take the BAIPS – The Born Alive Infants Protection Act enacted to protect infants who were born alive during attempted abortions and left to die. While the bill was supported by Kerry, Kennedy and Clinton, Obama opposed it on the Illinois state level and in the US Senate. And Obama has a virtual cornucopia of socialist government programs which the cash register has totaled up to be more than a trillion dollars in cost. When in doubt try to buy votes.

What has been most revealing are this Presidential candidate’s friends and associates. Take the Reverend Jeremiah Wright who has said:

9/11 was retribution for America’s racist and unjust past

That he considers the anti-Semitic leader of the Nation of Islam, Louis Farrakhan, a friend and one of the “greatest voices” of the 20th century.

That the government invented AIDS to exterminate Blacks

That because of their brain patterns Blacks and Whites learn differently

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is “Condoskeeza Rice” – a street term for whore

And Obama who has called Rev. Wright his “spiritual advisor”, his “mentor”, His “sounding board”, “one of the great preachers of America”, who included him on his campaign committee of religious advisors, who sat in his church for twenty years wants us to believe that he did not know that Rev. Wright had these extreme views, that he never heard him say anything like that! Yet he disinvited Rev. Wright from giving the invocation when the Senator announced his candidacy for the Presidency. His sermons “can get a little rough”, Obama said. Well Rev. Wright said he was there but hidden in the basement praying with the family.

Of Jeremiah Wright Obama said, “I can no more disown him than I can disown my white grandmother.” Last year Obama gave $26,000 to Trinity Church.

Faced with these revelations High UCC officials and sympathizers in the press said well these are statements taken out of context. Rev. Wright has delivered thousands of sermons with millions of words and you are cherry picking a few snippets. So I listened for days while the Hugh Hewitt radio show played Wright’s sermons in full. It didn’t change the perception. Then Rev. Wright appeared before the National Press Club and reiterated all that had been played over and over in these snippets supposedly out of context. He went on to reaffirm every one of these statements. Suddenly Obama was shocked and disowned the Reverend. But nothing new was proclaimed. It was political expediency at its worst.

Obama went on to address in San Francisco a private Democrat Party gathering. This event was closed to the public and press and Obama operatives were charged with seeing that no unauthorized persons should crash this private affair. Well one got through and recorded Obama’s words. Here amongst Party only hacks and operatives this man could let down his hair and say what he really believed. And he said that people in America’s heartland were bitter and clung to their guns and their Bibles.

Next was revealed his relationship with unrepentant terrorists William Ayers and his wife Bernadine Dohrn former members of the Weather Underground who helped to bomb government facilities. Obama says they were not close friends and barely knew each other. Yet both served together on the Board of the Woods Fund for years. They made speeches together. Obama launched his Congressional campaign with a fund raiser at the home of Ayers and Dohrn. But the cross association goes back to 1988 when Michelle Obama an associate of the Sidley Austin law firm of Chicago was assigned to mentor an intern named Barack Obama. Also at that law firm was Bernadine Dohrn.

Ayers and Obama through the Woods Fund were to give $75,000 to prominent Israel basher and Arafat apologist Rahid Khalidi who many say has ties to the PLO. Khalidi was to return the favor by hosting a fund raiser for Obama. Later Obama, Ayers and Dohrn attended a goodbye party for Khalidi.

Now some might say that this is an attempt to prove guilt by association. Yet who you hang around with, your friends, says a lot about you. Obama comes from Academia and like Adlai Stevenson he is a product of college hard left teachings. This tradition is anti American, anti Israel and socialist. And that is precisely what Obama’s associates are. Rev. Wright constantly trashes America and has made a point of visiting Castro’s Cuba and Col. Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya. In a 2001 interview with the New York Times, Ayers is quoted as saying, “I don’t regret setting bombs, I feel we didn’t do enough.” In a reunion of aging radicals in 2007 Ayers and Dohrn were outspoken in their hatred for America. Michelle Obama said, “For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country.” 

These are not the positions and the kind of talk which resonates with the average American. Most Americans will look on these statements and these positions as abnormal, fringe, extremist, radical and unacceptable. Middle of the Roaders are not attracted to such views.

The American people need to know all about a Presidential nominee. He should be properly vetted before he has gathered the majority of the primary delegates. This is especially true with a little known new face. The job of the press is to investigate and report. And they have been so busy being cheerleaders for the Obama campaign that they have failed to do their job. Facts coming out to light now probably would have headed off an Obama victory from the start. Many Democrats admit off the record that they know Obama will lose badly. But they will not deny him the nomination because of the large amount of new people he has brought into the party, many who have never voted before. And because Obama’s list of donors are mostly all small contributors, their names cannot be made public and those names remain under the strict control of Obama. The Democrat party cannot afford to lose all these new voters and will let Obama run and hope that those supporters will be back next time for whoever the nominee is. Meanwhile Hilary will openly support Obama but behind the scenes will do everything in her power to see he is defeated. For you see with the Clintons it is all about the Clintons and everybody else be dammed. Hilary looks to 2012 when she can say “I told you so” now nominate me this time.

It is this strangle hold that the far left has on the Democrat party that hurts its chances of winning the Presidency. This year looks to be a Democrat year. The Republicans had the power and fiddled while Rome burned. The American people are in the mood to give the other guy a chance. Democrats are poised to make significant gains in the House and Senate. And they could have easily had the Presidency too if they would have nominated someone more moderate.   A Joe Biden of Delaware or a Tim Kaine of Virginia would have beaten any Republican easily.

Meanwhile McCain as a 5 should be a shoe in to be our next President. The American people are not going to elect a radical extremist to be President. They are not going to install as Commander In Chief of our armed forces a person who hates America. But never put it past the power of a Republican to lose an election. I have written John McCain and advised him that if he truly should want to be the unity candidate that he should select as his Vice President Joe Lieberman. But McCain having no understanding of how a Capitalist economy works, being a poor speaker and a mumbler stumbler can stick his foot in his mouth so badly that Obama will breeze right by him if he is not careful.

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GUEST EDITORIAL: REBUTTAL TO A RECESSION

A friend named Dean has this rebuttal to my post about a coming recession.  So to present another side of the coin I have posted his comments.  Now it's up to you to be the Judge.
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I am a CPA, Certified Business Advisor, and PFS (the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants highest certification as a Financial Planner), as well as holding a MS in Tax and undergraduate degrees in Economics and Accounting. I also have about 20 years experience helping business owners and families with money and Business decisions. The reason I bring these qualifications up is to offer up a stronger level of expertise than those who offer up the forecast presented.

 

There is no evidence today’s boomers, who were the Woodstock generation, will spend like their parents (the great depression generation) did. In fact, all evidence points to the opposite. This means in retirement they will spend, spend, spend. Sure, no general comment can apply to the whole, but from a statically perspective, the boomer generation spends like CRAZY and saves little. This bodes well for consumer spending as they age. 

 

There is significant evidence boomers will not “retire” as their parents did, they will live longer, work longer, and generate income longer. This will mean this generation will have money to spend, and being totally self reliant at age 65 is no longer as important as it once was. It is still desirable, but not as critical.

 

We do not have an energy crisis, we have an enemy crisis. We have the ability, in very short order, to generate twice the energy we currently do, and other countries are adding energy capacity at incredible rates. Oil is a commodity that runs about a 10 year cycle, in the 60’s it was cheep, 70’s it was super high (about as high as today when adjusted for inflation), in the 80’s mid priced, 90’s it was dirt cheep, and in the 2000’s it is super high again. There is a world of alternative energy sources coming to market, right now most are not cost effective, but when cost effective sources are found, the economies of scale will quickly be put in play in this sector, driving down cost. NanoSolar panels, geo-thermal, nuke power, and methane hydrate all offer very promising energy solutions. France builds and average of 1 reactor a year, Japan does the same, China is building several, only our own politics stops us from laying groundwork for several today. 

 

While energy is as costly as ever, we are using less and less each day. Better fuel economy, better insulation on homes, energy star compliant appliances, high efficiency windows, high sear rated heating units all push us towards less and less energy usage. The truth is the average family spends 1/3 less of its budget (on a percentage basis) on energy than it did in 1970, even with energy prices at all time highs.

 

The Mortgage “Crisis” is just another wave of the banking cycle that causes a banking “crisis” of some kind every 10 years. Look back at the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s and we see some form of banking crisis every decade. This is driven by the real estate bubble that occurs every 10 years or so. The bubble inflates, banks loan to much on real estate, the bubble corrects, and the bank crisis story starts all over. During the bubble the banks must engage in this game to stay afloat as margins are cut lower and lower causing them to do greater and greater volumes of real estate loans looking for fee income. Too many of them and it corrects. Housing is like all markets, it reacts to supply and demand, and at the peak of the real estate bubble there is excess supply being built up. Now we have to work off the excess supply. When that happens we will see the real estate market line out, then the banks will line out, and we will be on to the next crisis.

 

Global warming/cooling myths are being busted on almost a daily basis now. With the emergence of real scientist looking at this issue we find it is simply a normal cycle doing what cycles do, it is cycling.

 

Protectionism is being back. McCain has won the polls in the most recent Zogby polls against either Obama or Hillary. Even the news media is promoting NAFDA with some sibilance of honesty. Ross Perot was an idiot, the giant sucking sound was the wind around his ears, not jobs going to Mexico, as is evidenced by our 4.8% unemployment after 18 years of NAFDA.

 

As a tax researcher, I find it extremely unlikely the democrats will try to repeal the Bush tax cuts. During a primary they will energize the base by denouncing anything with the “Bush” name on it, but once the nomination is secured, they will moderate as they move to the middle to try and gain the popular vote.   Very few will vote for a candidate who will raise taxes, especially when everyone is calling for tax cuts to stimulate the collapsing real estate market.

 

The credit squeeze is real, very real, and in my not so humble pinion a good thing for America. America has a weak, poor, lower class of citizens who have simply refused to move up the economic ladder with the rest of America. They have been able to maintain increasing lifestyles using credit, and we are nearing the end of that cycle. This will cause either a radical decline in their standard of living, or their adoption of lifestyles which will generate income to support the lifestyle they desire. It is proven many times with this group that they will take the easiest road to get the lifestyle the desire. The credit crunch means that road is “GETTING A JOB”. Considering the massive shortage of workers and artificially low unemployment rate, this will help our economy.

 

Now the good news. The economy is strong, with 4.8% unemployment consumer spending will remain strong. We have issues, very real ones, but a correction in the market does not a ruined economy make. We will likely see a couple months of slow or negative growth, but a recession is a period of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Considering Q4 of 2007 saw growth, and with news the economy is picking up, and the stimulus checks starting in May, it is unlikely the first 2 quarters of 2008 will have negative growth. As such, we are not headed for recession.

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Seven Good Reasons Why We Are Headed For A Recession

1)  DEMOGRAPHICS
 
We operate in a consumer spending economy.  That means as consumers spend so goes the economy.  Financial guru Jerry E. Tuma, CFP has done some interesting studies of the effects of demographics on a consumer driven economy.
 
He points out that the first of the "Baby Boomers" will start to retire in 2010. Now retirees generally spend about half of what workers spend.  Why is this important? Will not the next generation pick up the slack of the retiring Boomers?
 
The Baby Boomers are the largest modern generation generally pegged at 76 million people.  Gen. X coming behind the  Boomers consists of about 41 million people.  The Milennial Generation will be even smaller.  So, roughly, for every new entry into the current generation there are at the same time two people retiring (remember how social Security once was 20 people paying for 1 retiree but soon will be 2:1?).  That disparity may grow even greater when the Milennials calculations are made more definite.
 
When you retire you spend less.  You are not buying a new bigger home as you did on the way up the success ladder. Chances are you are now empty nesters.  You are downsizing.  Couples where both work are going from two cars to one car.  You eat out at expensive restaurants less frequently, you spend less on insurance, drive less miles, buy fewer expensive clothes etc.  About the only thing that goes up for retirees  is health costs.
 
Tuma talks about peak spending ages.  For instance the peak spending age for housing is 44 years old, for apparel and transportation, 48.5.  He says that medium peak spending occurs between the ages of 48 and 50.  Therefore if the top of the Boomer population curve hit in 1961 that means that the top of the Boomer driven spending wave will be 2010.  Housing tops first, everything else later.  Thus the top of the housing market was in 2005(We sold our house in September 2004).  In reality the housing market has been slowly going downhill since 2005, although most recently speeded up by a mortgage crisis (another point later).
 
Tuma says, "Companies, products, and services that are past their peak for Baby Boomer buying are not likely to prosper."  If buying power is cut that drastically it can't but have a slow down effect on the economy.
 
 
 ENERGY CRISIS

Now this is not new news ladies and gentlemen but it is getting worse.  We have been in an energy crisis for years.  And we increasingly place ourselves in the hands of foreign religious fanatics and anti American Dictators to supply our energy needs.  We are at their mercy.  OPEC has already declared that if our alternative fuels are successful that they will flood the market with cheap oil until those businesses go under.  The Democrat party will not allow any additional drilling for oil anywhere in the 50 states of the USA or off its shores.  It will not allow the construction of any new refineries to process the oil.  It has been more than 30 years since we have built a new refinery anywhere in the USA (although we have increased capacity at some).  It will block the construction of any new Nuclear Plants.  And now it says it will stop the construction of any new coal fired plants, even the newer cleaner burning coal.  The Democrats say that they also will block any further natural gas drilling licenses because, although it is environmentally sound to drill for natural gas, once there the companies will also want to take it one more step and get the oil that is there also.  And we can't have that.  You can't even get Ted Kennedy to stop blocking windmills in Hyannis Bay.  Mass production of alternative energy is 25 years away (it takes 5 years to build a refinery).  What do we do here and now?
 
We have plenty of oil deposits all over the USA and off our shores.  We just can't take advantage of them.  I believe we have the technology and the ability to drill for oil and to construct nuclear power plants that do not harm the environment and that have safeguards to protect not only our environment but out people.  Ninety percent of France's electricity is generated by nuclear power and has been so for over thirty years without mishap.  Our country is in the throes of a fervent "religious" movement that wants to take our style of living back to the practices of the Amish.
 
The answer to the problem is not conservation, not houses with the thermostat set at 62 degrees in the winter where we shiver with three sweaters on and 80 degrees in the summer where we walk around our homes in our birthday suits, nor drive three wheel mini cars the size of golf carts where one accident is instant death.  The answer is to increase the supply, NOW!  For the future will bring new technology which will transform our world and make for new ways of making safe energy.  In the meantime the environmental whacko zealots will put us in the poor house.
 
I am sure I do not have to spend much editorial space on the effect on the economy of increased oil prices.  Not only gas for our vehicles, heat and electricity of our homes and offices, but also a myriad of products produced are at the mercy of oil prices.  Increases in the price of oil raise many prices of other products and services across the board.  Just think of the devastating effect of one aspect, $4.00/gallon prices at the pump.  The critics would tell us it is time to invest in a horse and buggy.
 
Why is this all important at this time?  Well, do you see more or less Republicans being elected to Congress?  This looks like a Democrat year to me.  So expect the energy crisis to worsen and expect to pay $4.00/gallon at the pump.  Another reason we are headed for recession.
 
 
3)  MORTGAGE CRISIS
 
This is essentially an over speculation situation.  We live in a world of freedom, at least some left in our lives.  We all have the ability to be stupid.  And greedy scammers have the ability to skirt the law and take advantage of people.  Whether people who should know better or providers who are shady are the problem is not the debate here.  The problem exists.  And problems such as this in a free society seem to repeat themselves.  Remember the dot com bust in the Clinton Administration?  People looking for a way around the rules, people who think they can beat the system, providers who are essentially scammers, they are always with us.
 
But like most speculative booms and busts this one has a ripple down effect through the economy.  Foreclosures, on over extended borrowers sold a bill of goods, depresses the construction trades, the investment business and creates a credit crunch, never mind what it does to the housing market.  Fear spread by the media strokes the fires of negativity.  Wall Street refuses to buy mortgage futures.  People are scared.  Credit drys up.  It's a rolling snowball and in any over speculation bust you usually get an over correction.  Unfortunately coupled with other factors this can have a devastating effect on the economy.
 
 
BEYOND THESE FORCES BRINGING DOWN THE ECONOMY OTHER FACTORS EXIST DEPENDING ON WHO GETS ELECTED TO CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENCY.  IT IT'S A DEMOCRAT YEAR EXPECT THESE ADDITIONAL FACTORS TO WRECK HAVOC.
 
 
4)  GLOBAL WARMING HYSTERIA 
 
Whether we have a planet temperature increase is one thing.  Whether humankind is responsible for this increase is a whole other ball of wax and hotly contested.  Yet still the "Man is responsible Global Warmists" are really a religion based on faith not fact.  And the result of their draconian measures for an unproved hypothesis will wreck havoc on the economy.  These people, mostly congregated in the Democrat party, would like not only like us to reduce our energy consumption but they would like to tax energy even higher to insure people comply.  Make it so expensive that they won't use it, they advocate.  Passing laws that mandate certain thermostat settings, certain gas mileage standards for vehicles, new light bulbs are bad enough.  Blocking any and all energy production on US soil by any means - oil, coal or nuclear is crippling.  Demanding a reduction in C02 emissions would cost billions with a drop in the bucket C02 decrease.  And carbon tradeoffs are a joke, allowing only the rich and famous to enjoy a lifestyle denied to the rest of us.  Think of our elder citizens on a fixed income sitting home freezing to death.  Price controls on energy will reduce supply further, bringing back the gas lines we haven't seen since the Nixon Administration, and home heating/air conditioning bills of $500 every month.  In the middle of an energy crisis created by those who view any energy use as evil and hostile to the planet, these same people are saying that the use of energy is destroying our planet. Their solution is STOP USING ENERGY.  OK, but what do we do to stay alive?  Not our concern they say.  Our concern is saving the planet.
 
The minority report (Republican) of the US Senate Committee on Environmental and Public Works said this:
 
"The estimated costs to comply with carbon legislative proposals in the US would also be unreasonable.  The NCEP approach would do nothing to lessen global warming even according to alarmists, but according to EIA, it would still cost more than 118,000 American jobs simply to make a symbolic gesture"
"And according to an MIT study, the Sanders-Boxer bill would cost energy sector consumers an amount equal to $4,500 per American family of four.  The same study found the Lieberman-McCain bill would cost consumers $3,5000 per family of four.  Similarly, EIA found that it would have cost 1.3 million jobs.  A new EPA analysis shows the Lieberman-McCain bill would cost up to half a trillion dollars by 2030 and $1.3 trillion by 2050."
"Now environmentalists will tell you that is OK.  Dan Lashof of the Natural Resources Defense Council says that EPA's analysis of the Lieberman-McCain bill show 'it is affordable.'  Although EPA finds that fuel costs will increase by 22 percent, he calls fuel impacts 'pretty modest' - Now activists inside the Beltway may think big jumps in gas prices are no big deal, but I doubt the people living in the real America would agree."
 
THE POOR BEAR THE BIGGEST COSTS
 
"What few Americans realize is that the impact of these policies would not be evenly distributed.  The Congressional Budget Office recently looked at the approach taken by most global warming proposals in Congress - known as cap and trade - that would place a cap on carbon emissions, allocate how much everyone could emit, and then let them trade these emissions.  Let me quote from the CBO report."
'Regardless of how the allowances were distributed, most of the cost of meeting a cap on C02 emissions would be borne by consumers, who would face persistently higher prices for products such as electricity and gasoline.  Those price increases would be regressive in that poorer households would bear a larger burden relative to their income than wealthier households would.'
"Think about that.  Even relatively modest bills would put enormous burdens on the poor.  The poor already face energy costs much higher as a percentage of their income than wealthier Americans.  While most Americans spend about 4 percent of their monthly budget on heating their homes or other energy needs, the poorest fifth of Americans spend 19 percent of their budget on energy.  Why would we adopt policies which disproportionately force the poor and working class to shoulder the heaviest burdens through even higher energy costs?"
 
Zealots operating on fiction not fact can not only overburden the average American household, they can put American business at a global disadvantage which could result in a loss for many companies, a loss that would cost jobs.  Try paying for all these increases without a job.  Adoption of these severe global warming policies would hasten a recession and reduce consumer spending in other areas as the percentage of one's budget needed for energy skyrockets.
 
 
5)  THE REVIVAL OF PROTECTIONISM
 
Every modern American President since WWII from both parties has endorsed Free Trade.  Free Trade allows each country to specialize in what it does best and barter those goods or services for others that they could not or would not produce.  This passes on the lowest prices to the average consumer.  Chile may not make airplanes, but the USA does.  We may not make leather goods but Chile does.  An even up swap without tariffs (it's not quite that simple but for the purposes of illustration) allows the citizens of each country the lowest purchase price for the goods.  Once you put tariffs on a country's products they will retaliate in kind.  Now a win/win situation turns into a lose/lose situation.  Free global trade makes for an even trading partnership in a market all over the world, a huge marketplace to freely trade in.  Tariffs reduce the marketplace back to each individual country where you then have producers making goods or providing services that are inferior or at a much higher cost.  If you doubt that think of what it would cost you at the store for an American made shirt or trousers or shoes.  Imagine walking into Wal*Mart and finding no goods made in China.
 
Now we have Hilary and Obama running around saying that they will roll back and repeal CAFTA and NAFTA.  Actually Obama told a Canadian official not to take him seriously on what he was saying for public consumption on this issue which destroys his credibility.  In order to win the Presidency either candidate is willing to court the Union vote by endorsing Protectionism.
 
I really have to wonder at this sort of pandering to a voting bloc.  We say that we want to help poor, undeveloped, Third World countries.  What better way to help them then to  allow their goods and services into the USA without tariff.  This allows their businesses to grow and employ more people.  Sure beats just sending them foreign aid money and making them dependent on a handout.  Competition always benefits the consumer.  Unfortunately if the loser is an American voter  count on some politician to intervene in order to gain votes.  Trade barriers make goods and services more expensive and would add fuel to a recession.
 
 
6)  TAX POLICY
 
If it's a Democrat year the asses, er donkeys in Washington will repeal or let run out the "Bush tax cuts for the rich", the main reason for the continuation of the longest peacetime prosperity in the history of the nation.  Part of the Bush tax cuts was the reduction of the Capital Gains Tax from 28% to 15%.  Wait until you see what the stock market does when the old higher rate is brought back. And wait until you see what happens to your 401K.
 
The Democrats justify the need for tax increases to fund all the new additions to governmental programs they want to institute.  How else are they going to pay for socialized medicine?  But the odd fact is that the Bush Tax Cuts, like the Reagan and Kennedy Tax Cuts, actually led to a huge increase in government revenues.  So tax increases may not actually yield more revenue.  On paper they look like they do, but that does not take into account the action of people based on policy.  It is a static model.  A good way to to force people, investments and companies overseas is to increase taxes.  People then flee to where taxes are less.  Same principle works in the USA.  States like California, Michigan and Ohio are losing tons of people and businesses to Nevada, Texas and Florida.
 
Ray Blunt had this to say about the Democrat budget proposal:
 
"So it goes for an annual budget request that envisions the expiration and elimination of nearly every measure of pro-growth tax relief Republicans fought to pass through Congress.  In its place, the bill lays a trap for the American taxpayer in the form of #683 billion in new taxes - far and away the single largest tax increase in the long and ignominious history of the code."
"Of course, to achieve that level of prodigious spending, you need to do more than slash the child care tax credit in half (from $1,000 per child to $500) and resurrect the marriage tax penalty that Republicans once successfully slayed.  You also need to punish low-income Americans by replacing the 10-percent tax bracket (the lowest percentage one can pay and still pay income taxes) with a new rung of 15 percent; you need to dramatically increase the current 15 percent tax rate on capital gains; you need to punish small investors by raising the tax burden on dividends; you need to pave the way for the Death Tax to rise from the grave in 2011; and let's not forget: you need to ensure that an estimated 116 million taxpayers pay an average $1,8333 more to the federal government this year than they did the year before."
 
Both Democrats running for President have pledge to make business pay more by increasing corporate and business taxes. Corporations don't pay taxes; taxes on them however can make them less competitive in the global marketplace.  Competing against countries that do not tax business is very difficult.  Let me repeat that statement - CORPORATIONS DO NOT PAY TAXES.  They pass that cost onto the consumer by increasing their prices they charge for their product.  The higher you tax them the higher they raise their prices always insuring the same percentage profit.
 
With the hefty increase in retirees and the extra burden placed on Social Security and Medicare expect to see increased costs passed onto the consumer.  While increased energy costs may be squeezing the average American budget, increase in Social Security and Medicare Taxes and/or a reduction in services is a fait accompli.
 
So higher taxes mean higher prices, less investment, and everybody trying to dodge the bullet.  Not a good policy to make a vibrant
economy.
 
 
CREDIT SQUEEZE
 
It is estimated that Obama's promises for new governmental programs would cost an additional trillion dollars over what we are spending now.  Hilary's proposals are not far behind.  Actually we are going to put Santa Claus in the White House.  Socialism requires high taxes and huge government budgets.  If any of this spending is financed (how you deal with a deficit), by government bonds and securities for instance, then that is less credit available for private business to use.
 
Government doesn't create wealth it just redistributes it.  Private business creates wealth.  By expanding it also creates new jobs and pays more taxes.  Without the credit available to expand business stagnates and the economy flounders. If government policies follow election promises then we are in for huge funding of government and little expansion by business.
 
There you have it, seven good reasons why we are headed for a recession.  And even a Republican John McCain who was against the Bush tax cuts and who endorses Global Warming restriction policies and who has little understanding of economics will not necessarily change the gloomy direction in which we are headed.  So my advice is to get out of the stock market, move overseas, or lay low for awhile until the American people can see that these policies will not work.  Then, maybe, we will get real change!  Good luck!


 
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THE OBAMA PHENOMENON

 

THE OBAMA PHENOMENON

Hillary is reeling from shock. A year ago Obama wasn’t even on her radar screen. She has been prepping for the Democrat nomination for President for six years. All that fund raising, networking, arm twisting and she is being badly beaten from this upstart from nowhere. Why is Obama doing so well?

Obama is striking a chord with the American people. He is young, eloquent and above all just a plain nice guy. He is honest and sincere and he doesn’t trash his opposition. Contrast that with Hillary who if she was a dog would be a Pitt Bull/Rottweiler mix. The word most often used to characterize Hillary is B**ch, for Obama it is charismatic. They swoon over Obama.

This new Senator from Illinois is also smart. He understands that the American people are tired of the bitter partisan acrimony. We have had six years of trashing George Bush. “Bush lied, people died.” Americans like to look up to their President. They don’t enjoy a leader who cannot be honest and straight with them. They are tired of all the name calling and the infighting. They are also tired of nothing getting done because each party is vying for power at the expense of what is good for the country. The Democrats really never got over the impeachment of Bill and the loss of the 2000 election which they feel was stolen from them. Instead of doing what would help this country they have been consumed by revenge. Some say obsessed!

In walks Obama. Instead of being an attack dog like Hillary or John Edwards he tells the American people that they are good people and that they can rise to even greater heights. Instead of telling them how bad they are and how wrong everything is and whose fault it is he inspires and lifts up the American people – SHADES OF RONALD REAGAN. And since Ronald Reagan we have not had a leader who could touch the hearts of the American people. No one did it better than Reagan and Obama has taken a page from the Reagan handbook, a man who he says he admired, at least for his style. The American people are just plain fed up with being told that they are evil, war mongering, selfish, greedy, hateful, Yankee Imperialists by those who seek to lead them and that there is a vast Right Wing conspiracy. They want someone to lift them up not put them down. Obama has a vision, one of optimism. The glass is half full and he has confidence in the innate goodness of the people he will govern.

So Obama calls for unity everywhere he goes and preaches a message of hope and of change. But all is not rosy in this picture. Change, change, change but change what? Hope! Change! Tell me more. But Obama deliberately avoids being specific. If you asked twenty people to name one political accomplishment of Barack Obama you would get twenty blank stares. If you asked the same people to name something he would change you would get the same result. He is being all things to all people. But where does his heart lie?

So let’s look at his voting record. Viewing the combined ACU/ADA ratings where 100 is the most liberal and 0 is the most conservative, we find the top three liberal Senators, all Democrats,  to have these ratings:

1)      Barbara Boxer, CA           96.5

2)      Chuck Schumer, NY         95.1

3)      Barack Obama, IL             94.8

That makes Obama more liberal than Hillary or Ted Kennedy and the most liberal running for President. In reality he is a far left socialist whose presidential promises already have been calculated at close to one trillion dollars of additional federal spending if enacted.

Then is this call for unity genuine? I might place more stock in it if it was coming from a middle of the road moderate, from the center, who could say – “look, come to the middle with me, compromise and let’s get something done”. But when it comes from the far left or the far right then the change is going to be radical and contentious. But for the moment few really know Obama’s position on most issues. And they don’t care. He is not running an issue driven campaign. He’s running a feel good campaign. He is the redeemer who will save us all from our iniquities.

Obama will raise 137 million dollars this month of February. He has everything going for him to win and he is running a very clean and professional campaign. But in his heart Obama is a radical left wing Socialist. He may be able to run a slick campaign on platitudes but he can’t govern with them. As President he must come out of the closet and declare what he is for and what he is going to submit to Congress for legislation.   When he does that and he finds the going not so easy anymore will he label the lack of unity as unpatriotic and un-American? We shall see.

Still I don’t see any way he can lose. And take it from me a balding, old, war grizzly white man is not going to defeat a young, eloquent, clean cut black man. Not this time around. Here in Texas we have what we call early voting. The first day of early voting in Harris County, Texas – one of the largest Counties in the nation – in the last Presidential election year recorded 1,200 total votes cast. This year on February 19, 2008, the first day of early voting Harris County recorded 12, 000 total votes cast. Just so there is no mistake here that is twelve hundred versus twelve thousand. Of those 12,000 votes, 9,000 were cast in the Democrat primary and 3,000 were cast in the Republican primary. Now that is here in Texas a red state. New voters are stepping up to become involved and the overwhelming majority are in Barack Obama’s camp.

The Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves. Just a few short years ago they had the Presidency and the majority in the House and in the Senate. They were in full control and they did nothing. Now granted Democrats were being deliberately obstructive, but Bush was not The Great Communicator and he vetoed not one thing. While the Cat in the White House was consumed with the War on Terror and Iraq, the Mice in the Congress were piling on the pork with no opposition, even building bridges to nowhere.

I think I’ll cast my lot with Obama this year. After all if we are going to have a big liberal let it be a Democrat. The next ten years economically are going to be an American disaster with deep recession. John McCain hasn’t the foggiest notion of how to run the economy. He is an economic ignoramus. But then so is Obama who if elected would be one of the few Presidents elected to the oval office with such little experience. The last President we elected with this little experience was Jimmy Carter whose record will go down in history as the most disastrous administration of the second half of the twentieth century.

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Where Do We Go From Here?

 

Have you noticed as I have that the Democratic Party is a ferocious attack dog but that when cornered they have no alternative suggestions, in fact they have no programs of their own to put forth? ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK!!! OK, but replace the Bush way of doing things with what? Well we are a great party, says the Dems. If we put our heads together I am sure we can come up with a better way. Such as? And then we are left with the words, well anything would be better than this?

Have you ever talked to a Democrat about the War in Iraq? Notice how they constantly dwell on what has already happened. Bush lied; he got us into war under false pretenses. Bush did this, Bush did that, Bush didn’t do this, Bush didn’t do that. Their whole contribution to helping America in a difficult time is an obsession with hatred. They dwell constantly on the shortcomings of our President and his party but they rarely tell you what they would do. Stop telling me what was done wrong in the past.  Anybody can be an armchair quarterback after the game is over. What's done is done.  What matters most is WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

This  Bush bashing follows a pattern of obsessive hatred, fueled by a 2000 loss they feel they should have won and a Republican impeachment of the last successful Democratic president since JFK. Their whole plan of action has been to take down the President. It’s revenge time. And if you can’t get to him right away then launch a campaign of political abuse of his most trusted advisors. So they ganged up on Attorney General John Ashcroft. They screamed and badgered and struck blows of hatred so venomous that you would have thought that Himmler was in the Cabinet. Finally the poor man resigned only to be replaced by Alberto Gonzales who after a short grace period was under the same attacks. ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK!!! Having disposed of Ashcroft the Dems turned their bile on Donald Rumsfeld. Over and over again they attacked. Finally this man too resigned. All the while they have constantly heaped vulgar abuse on Vice President Cheney and chief advisor Karl Rove. Now if they could just get these two to resign. Well two out of four ain’t bad and they did mange to get Scooter Libby, not the big cheese they wanted to topple but the message was loud and clear.

So know we come to this recent theatrical enterprise of the US Senate authored by Democratic majority leader Harry Reid. With cots and pillows and pajamas they came to the Senate for an all night ballyhoo on the Iraq War. Anybody who took this seriously as some sort of great concern for the nation knows little about American politics. It was show and tell time, a great PR stunt and an appeal to their extreme left wing and most of all – a fundraiser for the Democratic Party.

Harry Reid had been saying “The War is lost, the War is lost” leading up to and at this pajama party. So if we have lost the War, who won? Somebody must have won. If somebody lost, then somebody else won. Al Qaeda? SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

It was these same Democrats who with the Republicans approved General Petraeus and his surge policy by a vote of 81-0. That approval was granted with a stipulation that the War surge would be re-evaluated in September. Now just three weeks after the last surge battalion had arrived in Iraq, the Democrats were pulling a Senate all nighter to stop the war now. OK we stop the war now but WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Those who say that the Iraq War has nothing to do with the War on Terror forgot to tell the terrorists who are coming across Iraqi borders in droves and bringing with them all types of armament. The terrorists know that a defeat of the all powerful United States would be a great feather in their cap and would aid them considerably in recruitment. Pulling out won’t stop the War. It will just end American involvement. And what will happen when we do pull out. Is anybody thinking down the road? SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has stated that enough American troops should be left to fight Al Qaeda, train, equip and support Iraqi forces and stop infiltration across Iraqi borders. Other Democrats in a sort of fuzzy way have said that, well some troops should remain, but how many and what their role would be is just not formed into a coherent policy yet. In response Pentagon officials have stated that such a position as Hillary’s would require a minimum force of 75,000 troops. 75, 000 TRROPS! Golly gee wiz what do we have there now? And what are the ramifications of immediate troop withdrawal; of partial withdrawal; redeployment? Who knows? Who cares on the Democratic side? WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

The purpose of all these shenanigans and all this hot air by the Democrats is to get Bush to make the withdrawal moves, to get Bush to pull out, to get Bush to admit defeat. If the Democrats were really serious about ending the War then they would pass a bill to cut off funds for the War and that would force Bush to bring home the troops. But they don’t want to do that because then defeat would be by their hands. The slaughtering and genocide that would follow would be blood on their hands. They want the American defeat to be by Bush’s hand. The Democratic Party has staked its winning of the Presidency in 2008 on the defeat of America in Iraq. If we were to win this war then they would lose at the polls.

The American public is beginning to get it. They voted in a Democratic Congress in order that some things might get accomplished. The problem is that they voted in a party who had no well thought out plans, policies or programs. Their claim to fame was there negativeness. They were the anti Bush. No one told them they had to be for anything. And so the Democratic Congress has not passed any major legislation. Not only have they failed on the issue of the Iraq War but also on education, energy, immigration, taxes, health care and a whole host of important issues. THEY HAVE FAILED TO PASS ONE MAJOR PIECE OF LEGISLATION. In the process they now have an approval rating of 14%. Fourteen percent of the American public think that Congress is doing a good job. But what you most often hear from the media is that President Bush has an approval rating of only 34%. Of course when all you are is negative hatred it’s hard to boast of any accomplishments.

When Hillary and Obama win the presidency in 2008 on another round of negative hatred Bush bashing, I still will be asking, WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

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